Bitter cold and snow kicked off early in October and November for the Midwest and Great Lakes area, but it’s far from over. Watch the video below to get a long range winter forecast for the Midwest where Neoweather combines the most reliable models to try and prepare you for what’s coming your way this winter. Check out other Snow Plow News blogs for nationwide and other long range forecasts for different regions.

Neoweather expects very active weather across the Midwest this winter. The typical jet stream cold will come down from Canada, but the lakes are expected to stay warmer causing above average lake effect snowfall. The most frigid air is expected to hit in early January when the most lake effect snow is expected to blast northern and western Michigan as well as Cleveland. If the lakes don’t freeze as expected, the lake effect snow becomes a big issue for these areas. Frequent clippers are expected across the region bringing reinforcing cold air behind them along with a wind shift that will favor more lake effect snow.

In the lower Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley it will still be cold with some snow, but Neoweather is also predicting rain and ice. From the Nationwide forecast we know that this is where the pressure systems merge. Higher than average temperatures from the Southwest merging into lower than average temperatures in the North will make the Southern Midwest region experience rain and ice.

Looking for more long range forecasts? Check out other weather forecast blog posts from Neoweather brought to you by Snow Plow News!

This is the second post in a series that looks at the top five 2-day snowfall events for some of our largest and snowiest cities. This week we look at the top 5 snow storms for Detroit. Specifically, we’re looking at the top 5 snow storms for the Detroit Metropolitan Airport located in Wayne County.

Table 1 lists the top five snowfalls at the airport, over two days, since 1958. This table doesn’t match the top five biggest snowstorms for Detroit. Why? Because we stop the term at two days. Some of the larger snow storms to impact Detroit occurred over 3 days or parts of three days and prior to 1958.

Like Chicago the largest snowstorms in Detroit produce considerable snow but they aren’t very high, compared to other metropolitan areas of the United States. In fact, it is surprising to find that a 12-inch snowfall would rank in the top 5 Detroit snowstorms since 1958. The top five snowstorms produce a range, of 11.8” to 19.3” of snow. You envision Michigan winters and you think snow. Well for Western Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, that is the case. However, Detroit and Southeastern Michigan is not down wind of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Detroit is also far enough away from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico that moisture from these sources falls as snow or rain before arriving. These are all significant moisture sources for snow in the Eastern United States. This explains the lighter amounts of snow found in the top 5. The timeframe for our top 5 snow totals is from December 2^nd to February 2^nd – 3 months. This is a much larger window than Chicago and more typical of cities in the northeast.

December 2, 1974 Snowstorm

Since Detroit is not downwind or adjacent to any of the Great Lakes, most moisture that feeds snowstorms originates from the Atlantic Ocean and, to a lesser degree, the Gulf of Mexico. The surface map in Image 2 shows an area of low pressure developing in the piedmont of North Carolina on the morning of Wednesday, December 1, 1974.  The central pressure is slightly less than 1004mb. This is not a very low pressure.  Light to moderate snow is reported at Detroit with a temperature of 30˚F.  The surface maps also shows a long fetch from the Atlantic Ocean. Since the storm has occluded, it is likely the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere Tennessee had a similar fetch. This would transfer a deep layer of moisture well inland towards Detroit and Ohio.

By 7am, Thursday, December 2, 1974 (Image 3), the area of low pressure has moved from the piedmont of North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is very little movement for an area of low pressure over 24 hours. The storm, while moving slowly, also strengthened with the pressure falling to near 992mb. That combination of slow movement and increasing strength resulted in an extended time frame for bringing moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and increased efficiency of snowfall. The temperature at 7am, December 2, 1974 at Detroit was 34℉ with light to moderate snowfall. So, this was a heavy, wet snowfall.

Slow moving storms are common factors in high precipitation events. For the 1974 Super Snowstorm in Detroit, it was a significant factor.

The National Weather Service out of Detroit/ Pontiac has a very good write up on the Super Snowstorm of 1974 here: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/GhostofThanksgivingWeekendSnowstormofthePast

Welcome to this winter’s wonderland – the Northeast! Mark Spencer from Neoweather dug deep into a variety of weather models to determine a long range winter forecast for the Northeast region that looks like the nation’s epicenter of active and snowy weather. He expects a bit of a slow start, but hard and fast turn in January that will lead to loads of lake effect snow in upstate New York, frigid temperatures and frequent coastal storms. Interested in a long range forecast for the entire country or other regions? Check out other Snow Plow News blogs next.

Above average snow is expected this winter in the Northeast. Several huge storms are to be expected to hit the area this year from the lakes on in the west and from the systems colliding. We learned in the Nationwide forecast that there will be high pressure systems in the Northeast that get railroaded by low pressure systems from the Southwest and create some intense storms this year. Neoweather expects the Northeast to be the main wintery area this year and “big time in the snow zone” according to Meteorologist and Neoweather President, Brian Ivey.

It’s too early to tell how much snow will be hitting the Northeast or when the snow events will come, but all signs are pointing to an active winter for this area. Looking for more long range forecasts? Check out other weather forecast blog posts from Neoweather brought to you by Snow Plow News!

A couple of smaller systems kick off our week starting 11/19/19 with some ice and snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes that moves into New England. Next a larger system in North Dakota and Northern Minnesota brings some snow accumulation. But the real area to watch starts in the Rockies on Wednesday late afternoon and evening. As that system develops it may bring some trouble for Thanksgiving holiday travels for the Midwest and Northeast.

Most of this week stays relatively quiet, with just a few areas of weather to watch. The Rockies will get more snow tomorrow and late this week. While a wet pattern in the Desert Southwest is going to push up across the country along with warm weather pushing up from the Gulf. Happy day for the Northern states! You’ll get a break while the warmest air you’ve seen all month moves into the Midwest and Ohio Valley with some rain as it pushes over Michigan and Upstate New York. No snow is expected until it hits the colder air in New England – so watch that area. There may be some brief lake effect snow on the back end of that system, but nothing huge. Then much of the country sees quiet weather over the weekend before Thanksgiving.

Then it comes… Neoweather is watching a system moving in from the Pacific Northwest that may spice up next week and your Thanksgiving travels. This system moves into the Rockies on Monday bringing widespread snow over most of Nebraska, Colorado and Utah. As it moves east it could be a pretty significant weather system across the Midwest by Wednesday. So keep an eye on that. Different weather models are all suggesting a low pressure event in the middle of the country that could bring a bucket load of wintery weather just in time for Thanksgiving travel when it collides with the warm air that’s moving out in the Midwest and Northeast.

One thing we know for sure – the winter fun is just starting! November looks like it’s going to end with lots of active weather and that’s just going to reload and repeat for the next several months. This is just an overview. If you want detailed weather information for YOUR area, a private forecasting service like Neoweather can help! Phone apps can give you a general idea of what’s coming, but basing your equipment and staff scheduling decisions upon that generic weather info is risky business. Neoweather prepares you with hourly data that includes all the details you need to manage ice and snow for YOUR specific service area. Contact Neoweather for more details!

You’ve already gotten a taste of winter 2019/2020 but what’s going to happen as it continues? What are the models saying for December, January and February this year? Here’s your official nationwide long range winter forecast from Neoweather. Meteorologist Brian Ivey takes a look at the general overall weather pattern looking at the models with the best historical track record to give you a long range forecast for our country. Check out other Snow Plow News blogs for regional long range forecasts.

The jet stream will bring plenty of cold weather across the middle of the country and then up into the Northeast. However there will be an area of high pressure over the west coast that keeps temperatures potentially well above average. No El Niño or La Niña are expected this year but we do expect a Negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). That means there will be an area of warm, moist weather from the Pacific states that may collide with the cold jet stream as it moves east. This could setup a major winter battlefield in the Midwest and Northeast regions. In other words, the temperatures in the western third of the country are expected to be 2-4 degrees above average, especially in the Nevada region where it will be the warmest.

The weather in the Midwest and Northeast will be 2-4 degrees cooler than average, especially around the Great Lakes. When those worlds collide, that’s when the snow events will happen. The Midwest and Ohio Valley will feel those effects with higher than average snowfall this year – but might not be as much as last year. But look out DC, New York and Boston – you may be in a big time snow zone this winter with as much at 150% above average snow fall!

Most of the country is going to be at average precipitation this winter. The exception is the Northeast from Atlanta on up. They will have above average snow fall. The other area to watch is Southern California for above average rain that will turn to snow in higher elevations around the Rockies. Expect drier weather than last year in Seattle and the Northern Pacific states and in the Southern Plains.

Looking for more long range forecasts? Check out other weather forecast blog posts from Neoweather brought to you by Snow Plow News!

Interesting map. I’ve done climate study since the 70s so I stay up to date with a lot & look at a lot of forecasts etc. I think this guy is very close to really correct. I know, mets base winter Dec, Jan, Feb months. I go by the calendar & a cold vs warm season. December 21st is often first day of winter with cold season Oct to April etc. I always figure early Dec is late autumn & March can be very wintry even in South. March was when the South got its biggest snow in the blizzard of 93. I’m familiar with Duluth, MN weather. If you like cold or snow even with a warming earth, you get it every winter there & will for decades to come. If you love heat with humidity, Orlando is your spot. As for the winter forecast in this video, I believe if he makes the cold areas adding just a little more to the West & South, that would be perfection. I’d suspect below average as in entire winter combine as far down as Macon but not FL. As for precip, same thing a little more South just South of Atlanta & then a little more West included but every area he has. I think TN is going to be in the news a lot this winter. That’s a Southern State yet in a location North enough that it can get Northern winter type periods unlike Atlanta. I think there will be Gulf systems moving up this season. That Atlanta Northward area is always on the line it seems. I think just North of Atlanta it’s going to mix up with not only rain but sleet, freezing rain & three big snows. Big for those areas that is. The ice storms will be big news imo & then those systems move up East Coast with big snows imo I also expect a seesaw type winter in all his blue areas. That means times of zonal flows for average then even some above avg days & a return to longer times of below avg days that averages just about how he made forecast. I think he made a great forecast & I’m always picky about it all. I’m not thrilled with Joe Bastardi right now per forecasts but he’s good too. He need to leave politics out of his weather.

Winter 2019-2020 is off to a pretty strong start. Lots of people are saying we skipped fall and went right into winter. If you are located in the northern half of the country, that definitely feels true, but let’s gain some perspective and take a look at some of the bigger snow storms to hit across the United States in the past. We’re kicking off a series that looks at top five 2-day snowfall for some of our largest and snowiest cities. This week we look at the top 5 snow storms for Chicago.

Table 1 lists the top five snowfalls at O’Hare airport, over two days, since 1958. This table doesn’t match the top five biggest snowstorms for Chicago. Why? Because we stop the term at two days. Some of the larger snow storms to impact Chicago occurred over 3 days or parts of three days.

The largest snowstorms in Chicago produce considerable snow but they aren’t the highest totals, as compared to other metropolitan areas of the United States. However, they still produce significant amounts of snow. The top five snowstorms produced a narrow, but high range, of 17.9” to 20.6” of snow. They also all fall in a narrow time frame of one month – January 2^nd to February 2^nd. That is very interesting and may be the result of a small sample size or it could be climatology. Compared to other cities in our review, this is a narrow time frame.

January 2, 1999 Snowstorm

This storm took a track that favors snow and heavy snow for Chicago. The track is common in our list of top 5 snowstorms for Chicago. Image 2 is a surface map from 6am Saturday, January 2, 1999. It shows an area of low pressure north of Memphis, Tennessee. The central pressure is less than 1004mb. South of that area of low pressure is another with a pressure of 1002mb in southern Arkansas. Chicago and the surrounding counties are reporting temperatures in the teens under moderate to light snow with a southeast wind. Snow would continue through the day.

Image 3 is a surface map from 6am Sunday, January 3, 1999. It shows the area of low pressure has moved north and east into northern Lower Michigan and strengthened. The pressure has fallen to 993mb. Skies are cloudy to mostly cloudy to cloudy with snow showers in and around Chicago. Temperatures remain in the teens. By Sunday afternoon, snow showers began to end and arctic air moved in behind the storm for several days.

This is a prime track for significant snow for Chicago. Here are the reasons why:

1. The storm travels from the south. This results in a large transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
2. The storm track remains east of Chicago. Warm air advection remains to the east and this favors an all snow event for Chicago, as the city remains on the cold side of the storm.
3. The storm is strengthening as it moves from south to north. Those are three significant and repeatable factors in large Chicago snowstorms.

The National Weather Service out of Romeoville has a very good write up on the Blizzard of 1967 along with statistics on some of Chicago’s largest snowstorms. You can read about that here: https://www.weather.gov/lot/67blizzard