Check out the long term winter weather forecast for 2019-2020 from Neoweather. A lot goes into long range weather forecasting like analyzing pressure patterns and different weather models. According to meteorologist Brian Ivey, an amplified western ridge of high pressure is likely to be a factor this season. Some previous years that resemble this pattern ended up to be MEMORABLE.
Last Year’s Winter Forecast Review
In 2018-2019 Neoweather did a pretty good job on their long range forecast. They predicted the cold up in the Northern Plains and that definitely held to be true. They forecasted warmer than normal temperatures in the Southwest, and that was true but even warmer than predicted and it went further north than Neoweather expected. Even though there were some very cold days in these areas, there weren’t a lot of them.
Factors to Help Forecast This Winter’s Long Range Forecast
Sea Surface Temperatures at the Equator:
Looking at water temperatures near the equator in the Pacific helps predict El Niño and La Niña. This year we’re seeing some warmer sea surface temperatures that might push us into a very weak El Niño situation, but overall we should stay very neutral. That just means we’ll have some warm days and some cold days, but neutral overall.
Negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO):
There is a ridging in the Pacific Northwest that typically provides warmer temps across the Northwest, then cooler temps across the Northeast.
Different Weather Models
The Snow Pack Model shows much less snow today when compared to last year on the same date in Canada and into the North Pole. So that will be monitored and hopefully improving over the next month. The American CSF Model shows a much warmer winter, but they have a warm bias and have been incorrect for the last several year. The European Model has been a little more accurate. It shows cooler weather in the West and warmer weather in the East.
However, the Canadian Model has been much better in recent years with long range forecasting. It shows the upper level heights. Their model shows 2019-2020 with ridging (high pressure) in the West and colder air in the East. The Japanese Model has done relatively well in recent years as well. Because of these outcomes, Neoweather leans towards using the Canadian and Japanese Models in their forecasts.
Neoweather’s 2019-2020 Long Range Winter Forecast
Using all of the factors and models above as well as many other tools, Neoweather is forecasting dryer, warmer conditions in the Southwest areas of California, Nevada, Utah and Southern Oregon this winter.
All of the Southwest is predicted to be 1-2 degrees warmer than average overall as well as Florida and the southern parts of Georgia and Arkansas. Much of the Central United States, Plains and Southeast are forecasted to be average temperatures. Then a large radius around the Great Lakes is expected to be lower than average temperatures. The lowest temps are expected to be in Eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Chicago, Michigan, Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio. Much of the East Coast will stay around average temps.
The West Coast will be more dry than usual. That extends from Seattle down through California and Nevada. The rest of the country will stay at average precipitation with the exception of a band of wetter weather from Oklahoma through the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley up into New York and Boston.
The cold radius of weather around the Great Lakes region into Washington DC and down touching the Tennessee Valley will experience more than average snowfall. The other spot of higher than usual snowfall is around the Rockies. The rest of the country will be drier than usual and experience less snow than average.
Overall, Neoweather says the current warm stretch will last most of the fall into December. January will kick off the strongest likelihood of the highest snowfall and colder temperatures than average. Looking for more details and a private forecast for YOUR service area? Contact Neoweather today!